Outline: Introduction to Population Dynamics and Social Policy

I. The relevance of demography to public policy 

II. Overview of class

III. Syllabus

Outline:  Population and economy 

     I.    Population trends in history

            A. Why the takeoff?

     II.   Demographic Transition Theory

A. How did the demographic transition occur in Europe?

B. Why did it occur?

 III.   Contemporary developing countries

A. The case of Taiwan

B. The case of China

C. Do family planning programs work?

     IV.    Population growth and economic growth

A. Malthusian model of population  

B. Marx

C. Durkheim

D. Modern day Durkheimians

E. The Revisionists

F. Historical and contemporary evidence – What is the relationship between population growth and economic growth?

    V.   Policy implications

Outline: Trends in American Demographics  

I.        Fertility in contemporary America

A.   Data Sources

          B.  Overview of fertility in American society

II.      The Baby Boom           

III.      Explanations of the baby boom

                A. Easterlin’s theory of the Baby Boom

           B. Other major theories of baby boom: Norman Ryder

IV.      Implications of baby boom for American society

Lecture Outline: Basic demographic concepts and techniques

 I. Age and Sex Structure of Population

A. Age structure

B. Sex Composition

C. Age Ratio

D. Dependency Ratio

E. Population Pyramids

II. Basic Fertility Measures  

A. Period versus cohort measures

Period Measures:

1. Crude Birth Rate  

2. General Fertility Rate

3. Age specific fertility rate

4. Total Fertility Rate

5. Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)

6. Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)

7. Coale’s Indicies – 4 rates

B. Cohort Rates

III. Basic Mortality Measures

A. Crude Death Rate (CDR)

B. Age Specific Death Rate (ASDRs)

C. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)

D. Neonatal mortality rate (NMR)

E. Post-neonatal mortality rate (PNMR)

F. Cause specific death rates (CSDR)

G. Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR)

H. Life Tables

Outline: Demographic Projection 

I. Intro

II. Techniques of Demographic projection

          A. Algebraic Methods

          B. Component methods

                   1. Projection of fertility rates

                   2. Projecting mortality  

                   3. Projecting migration  

                   4. Examples

*****END FOR MIDTERM*****

Outline: Economics of mortality

     I.                   Intro: mortality and public policy   

II.                Basic rules of mortality

              A. The J curve

B. Change in death structure

C. The maximum human life span

D. Problems with mortality statistics

     III.     How and why has life expectancy changed since 1650?

IV.            Mortality trends in U.S. this century

V.               Male female differences in mortality

A. Males have higher death rates than females

B. Why do women live longer than men?

1. Biological reasons

2. Lifestyle reasons

VI.     Decline of mortality in third world

          A. What is known?

          B. Why has it happened?

VII.         Understanding risk to life 

A.   Things to remember about the existence and analysis of risks

B.    Suggestions for thinking and communicating about risks of policies and decisions

Outline: Economic analysis of fertility

I.      Economic Theories of fertility behavior

II.      Demographic theories

   III.      Sociological theories of fertility behavior

              1. Davis and Blake’s theory of fertility

              2. Normative theory of fertility (Judith Blake)

              3. Social goals or orientation approach

              4. Sociological explanations of Childlessness

                     a. Pattern of childlessness in U.S.

                     b. Why does childlessness occur?

                     c. What are the social conditions that  predict childlessness?

                     d. Societies characterized by childlessness

    IV.  Synthesis model

    V.   Evolutionary psychology theories of fertility

    VI.  Theories of fertility in third world

Outline: Population and Family Policy

 I. Welfare Policy  

       A. The American tradition of little support for the poor.

       B. Policy issues of welfare

       C. Variations in welfare policy from state to state.

II. Family policy issues: Divorce and kids

       A. Effects of divorce on children

Outline:   Population and Aging Policy

I.  Aging of American society

A. Advantages of a large older population

B. Disadvantages

    II. Policy issues of an aging workforce

     III. Decline of children’s wellbeing

Outline: Immigration policy in a "nation of immigrants"

 I. Introduction

II. Early English Immigrants  

A. The Virginia company

B. The Pilgrims

III. The demand for labor and the call for immigrants

A. Scotch Irish

B. Germans

IV. War of Revolution

V. First great immigrant stream 1820-1889

VI. Immigration legislation in the nineteenth century  

A.  Anti-Irish, Anti-Chinese sentiment

        B. Chinese exclusion Act 1882

VII. The second great immigrant stream (1890-1924)

A.  Discriminatory laws

B. The 1924 National Origins Act

C. Continued anti-Asian legislation     

VIII. The third great immigrant stream (After 1924)

A. Mexican "repatriation"

        B. 1952 immigration law change

 IX. 1965 Amendments 

A. Recent changes to these preferences

X. Conclusion